It’s never too early to start sizing up lines. A lot can happen between now and Week 1. Holdouts, roster moves, preseason achilles explosions. But fortune favors the bold. It’s only May, but it’s time to take a look at the slate. And boy oh boy do some of those spreads jump off the page.
1:00 p.m.
I’m taking Bengals -6.5 to the Steelers in Cincinnati.
I’ll always trust the Steelers draft process. They never seem to miss. I expect them to be more fun to watch this year without having to cater to a dying Roethlisberger. But asking Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett to challenge the AFC champions Week 1 is a tall order. Either way you slice it, it’s a quarterback in a brand new system.
The Bengals had a meh kind of draft but they finally addressed their offensive line weakness by signing La’el Collins. Sprinkle in home field advantage and I’m taking Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase by over a touchdown.
4:25
I’m taking Chiefs -2.5 to the Cardinals in Arizona.
The disrespect. This is a “they don’t have Tyreek Hill anymore” line. I think all the Tyreek Hill talk is going to light a fire under Mahomes. I’m not saying a rookie is going to walk in and be Tyreek Hill, but drafting Skyy Moore was obviously an attempt to replace that speed. I think people forget that the Chiefs signed Juju Smith-Schuster. While Juju has noticeably declined over the past few seasons, so had his quarterback. Pairing him with Mahomes might just unlock a 2018 Juju who had 1,426 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Chiefs have solidified themselves as perennial Super Bowl contenders. Losing Tyreek Hill is Mahomes’ first real test, but I think he answers the call.
Plus the Cardinals are a weird team. Deandre Hopkins is out six weeks for PEDs. In a desperate Hail Mary to offset the loss Kyler’s number one receiver, the Cards traded a first rounder for Hollywood Brown. Essentially the same price the Eagles paid for AJ Brown. Arizona had some glaring holes to fill in the draft. Like edge rush for instance, after losing Chandler Jones to the Raiders. But they decided to go TE with their first draft selection even though they traded for Zach Ertz last season. Yeah the game’s in Arizona, but Kyler Murray doesn’t even like Arizona so who cares. I think the whole debacle this offseason with unfollowing the Cardinals on Instagram and then his agent writing that uncomfortable letter is going to loom over Kyler’s head. And he’s kind of a mental midget. Which is ironic because he’s also, well, you know. Chiefs by well over a field goal.
I’m taking the Packers -1.5 to the Vikings in Minnesota.
Please for the love of God, please, someone tell Aaron Rodgers they’re only giving Kirk Cousins 1.5 points against him. I understand that the Packers lost Davante Adams, but that doesn’t give you the right. Rodgers has played fourteen seasons now, he’s lost number one receivers before. James Jones, Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, it didn’t matter. He was still Aaron Rodgers, he’ll make a new pro bowler. Plus one of those things that don’t matter but definitely make a difference in my brain is the Packers getting embarrassed by the Saints Week 1 last year 38-3. I can’t see Rodgers getting embarrassed two years in a row coming off an MVP season.
The Vikings are the Vikings. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are fun to watch. I think their secondary could be sweet since they drafted Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth Jr. to add to Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith. But I’m not sure that’s enough for a team that only beat three teams over .500 last year. At the end of the day you’re asking a first year coach in Kevin O’Connell to devise a plan for Kirk Cousins to beat Aaron Rodgers. I’m not buying it.
8:20
I’m taking the Bucs -2 to the Cowboys in Dallas.
Tom Brady has only lost four Week 1 matchups in his twenty-two year career. I just can’t see the Cowboys being number five. The Bucs have added Logan Ryan, Russell Gage, and long-time Patriots starting guard Shaq Mason. But the biggest acquisition was retaining Tom Brady who very well might make the Bucs the best team in the NFC. Brady’s going to want to come out and prove he made the right decision by extending his career. Anyone who thinks the distractions of un-retiring and the FOX deal are going hinder him is silly. If anything I think it’ll have the opposite effect. Brady loves distractions. I mean, the season the guy was suspended he went on to win a Super Bowl.
Strangely enough, the Cowboys opened up with the Buccaneers last year. It was a close one, losing 29-31. But, BUT, Dak Prescott had to throw 58 times and Amari Cooper had 13 receptions for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns. Amari Cooper is gone. While most people might agree with the Cowboys to trade Cooper, it puts a lot of pressure on Ceedee Lamb. How did Cowboys look to relieve that? They signed poopy James Washington who averages only 407 receiving yards A SEASON. The Cowboys aren’t even positive that Michael Gallup will be ready for Week 1. Which means they may have to start their third round rookie from South Alabama. But Dak’s troubles don’t stop at a depleted receiving corps as the Cowboys also lost their six year starter on the offensive line, La’el Collins. Dallas’ defense will be fun to watch, headlined by Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons. But I don’t think it’ll be enough. The offense won’t be ready enough to match a Tom Brady with a chip on his shoulder.
The lines will most likely move. It’s exhilarating to see them move in your favor. And if they don’t, just remember why you liked the original line in the first place. And if you’re so inclined: a Bengals -6.5, Chiefs -2.5, Packers -1.5, and Bucs -2 parlay is +1148. Gamble responsibly.
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