This is one of the most interesting years for rookies in the MLB. If you happened to pay attention that nightmare of a lockout I’m sure you heard or read about time manipulation quite a few times. Very long story short if you’re unaware of what time manipulation is, it’s essentially keeping rookies in the minors longer so the owners can pay them less money. I don’t know if it’s owners operating in good faith post-lockout, but there are A LOT of top rookies that look like they’ll make the opening day roster.
Oddly enough, both favorites to win the award will most likely start the season in Triple A. The current betting favorites are Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals and Oneil Cruz from Pittsburgh. The Royals haven’t optioned Witt just yet but being that they cock teased us last year with giving him an Opening Day spot only for him not to play a single major league game doesn’t give me much confidence. Oneil Cruz was sent down to Triple-A today because the Pirates are the Pirates. But don’t expect him to be held down for too long. He’s a freak of nature as a 6’7”(!) shortstop who bounces balls off the moon. But we’re not here for favorites.
Part of my reasoning for these picks will be sheer volume. All of these rookies are expected to have a role from April 7th on. It’s the Gary Sanchez rule. Gary should have won the ROY over Michael Fulmer his year but due to a late call up, Gary got shafted. So without further adieu.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
3. Nick Lodolo CIN P +4000 BSSportsbook
Everyone loves a good lefty. After the Reds traded away their top performers like Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Sonny Gray, cracks were made to be slipped through. Lodolo has all but solidified a spot in an otherwise depleted Reds’ rotation. But damnit if he didn’t earn it. The former seventh overall pick has only allowed one run, through 7.1 innings pitched, one walk, and nine strikeouts this spring. MLB currently has him sitting as the 42nd overall prospect.
2. McKenzie Gore SDP P +3300 BSSportsbook
To say the McKenzie Gore hype train has lost some passengers would be an understatement. As the third overall pick out of high school in 2017, Gore was touted as sure as a sure thing could get. At 19 in Double-A he posted a 1.69 era which garnered him a Top 5 overall spot in prospect rankings for years. But the Padres kept trading for pitchers over and over and over again. In the last two seasons they’ve traded for their entire rotation- Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Mike Clevinger. So wtf? Well Gore apparently was having control issues stemming from a blister issue. His fall from grace has landed him in the 86th spot on MLB’s Top Prospects. But hold on…THAT’S MCKENZIE GORE’S MUSIC! Spring has done wonders for the former Top 5 prospect. In his last outing he threw three scoreless innings while whiffing five. Bringing his spring total to seven scoreless innings pitched. With a fastball in the mid-90’s, above average slider and curveball, I expect Gore to rack up wins with this talent stacked Padres team.
1. CJ Abrams SDP SS +900
Remember when Fernando Tatis Jr. was moved to the outfield last year, and people thought “Hmm that’s a weird thing to do to a guy you just gave 340 million dollars to?” Yeah, enter CJ Abrams. Drafted 6th overall out of high school in 2019, Abrams showcased his talent immediately by winning the Arizona Rookie League MVP with a .401 average and swiping 14 bags in 32 games. He’s an above average hitter with decent pop and a good frame. Abram’s speed kills. He has the highest graded run tool amongst the top prospects. CJ is currently rated the 9th overall prospect in baseball. One’s man tragedy is another man’s opportunity. With Tatis out for three months, CJ Abrams should get his chance to prove he belongs.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
3. Cristian Pache OAK OF +5000 DraftKings
FYI BSSportsbook still has him in the National League. Since Cristian Pache signed with the Braves in the International Draft in 2015 he’s found himself towards the top of the Top Prospects list. His fielding and speed are off the charts. Everyone is just waiting for his bat to catch up. After making the Braves Opening Day lineup last year, things were looking up. Unfortunately, after struggling early Pache was sent back down. He started to heat up from August on posting a slash line of .296/.349/.438. Cristian’s improvement at the plate earned him a decent amount of major league time during the Braves’ postseason run. During the off-season, Pache was the centerpiece in the Matt Olson trade between the A’s and Braves. Clearly Oakland is still buying stock in 23 year old if they gave up their best offensive player for him. With center fielder Ramon Laureano still serving 27 more games of his suspension, Pache should start the season with a “prove it” lineup spot.
2. Reid Detmers LAA P +2500 BSSportsbook
Reid Detmers is a strikeout artist. So far this spring he’s had five scoreless innings with ten K’s. Just an angry amount of strikeouts. Angels drafted him 10th overall in 2020 out of Louisville. Detmers currently sits at the 21st spot of overall prospects. The Angels are getting back a healthy Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Jo Adell and Jared Walsh have elite power. Couple that with the most electrifying player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani, and I think you have more than enough potential wins for Detmers. Padding the stats in the wins and strikeout columns could be enough for the ROY nod.
1. Jeremy Peña HOU SS +1200 BSSportsbook
Jeremy Peña was drafted out of the University of Maine for his flashy glove. But since turning pro his power has turned on. After returning last year from a wrist injury that cost him most of the season, Peña hit 10 dingers in only 30 Triple-A games. If you wondered why the Astros were so calm about letting Carlos Correa walk, this is why. Peña has the pop and speed to be a consistent 20/20 player, with an above average glove to boot. So far this spring Peña has hit .364 with three RBIs. Sure, it’s a small sample size but that hasn’t stopped the Astros from hyping him up. Former MVP Jose Altuve commented on the rookie saying, “He’s going to be a superstar. I can tell by his attitude. He cares. He wants to be the best.” Now that’s kind of a homer quote coming from a teammate, but opponents have said the same thing. Here’s what Robinson Cano had to say about Peña: “He’s an athlete. He can run. He can move, hit for power too. For me, he has all the tools. He’s going to be a superstar for sure.” With Correa gone, it’s likely that Peña can find himself slotted lead off on an already stacked Astros lineup. Opportunity plus multiple All-Stars dropping the dropping the “s-word” is good enough for my number one longshots pick.
Baseball is right around the corner. About damn time. I was supposed to be in Vegas for Opening Day, fuckin lockout. But hey, given the way winter went I’ll take an early April start any day. With Ohtani and Soto making MVP no fun to bet on, we’re doing rookies this year. But remember, bet responsibly.
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